Q3 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

After minor growth the last few weeks, Q3 Core pace fell this week, losing 0.8 points.

• July dropped 1.4 points.

• August saw no change week over week.

• September fell 0.8 points.

While August saw no change overall, quite a few categories saw positive momentum. We only saw declines for Fox and Indie affiliates; the Midwest, South Atlantic, and South Central regions; and the 21-65 and 101+ DMA groups.

Forecast Updates

I’m not terribly concerned by the decline in July pace this week: I saw the decline coming in the data, and it actually fell less than I expected. As a result, I’ve raised my estimate for the month. I suspect the earliness in World Cup bookings was one of the primary drivers of the drop, and as prior years catch up to this year, that early advantage has naturally narrowed, pulling pace down.

Even better, August shows improvement in quite a few categories, supporting the widely held theory that Q3 business is breaking late, with far more monthly buys this year than the quarterly buys we saw last year. Continued economic uncertainty is likely contributing to that trend, as buyers want to commit as little spending as possible while they wait for additional clarity. This could prove to be a dangerous strategy, however, when it comes to September, at least in markets expecting significant political dollars. The buyers who wait the longest are going to have to pay the highest rates.

One thing to watch in the coming weeks is that last year a few different groups took on large investment deals in the back half of the quarter. As we come up against those comparisons this year, they will naturally pull down pacing. Political displacement will likely pull it down even further. That’s just one more reason I am keeping my estimates fairly conservative.

Here are those estimates:

Q3 vs. 2025:

• July: -4.1% - up 1.5 points from last week

• August: -7.0% - up 0.2 points from last week

• September: -17.0% – down 1.1 points from last week

• Q3 Total: -10.0% - up 0.1 points from last week

2026 vs. 2025:

• Q1: -3.0%

• Q2: -9.5%

• Q3: -10.0% - up 0.1 points from last week

• Q4: -13.9% - down 0.9 points from last week

• 2026: -9.1% - down 0.2 points from last week