Q1 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

This week, Q1 Core saw no movement week over week, but March on its own climbed 0.3 points.

Q2 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Q2 has ended its precipitous decline, increasing 0.5 points from last week.

• April grew by 0.7 points.

• May lost 0.1 points.

• June increased by 1.1 points.

While growth wasn’t universal, quite a few categories contributed to the April rally: CBS, NBC, Fox, MyNet, and Indy stations improved; the Northeast and West regions climbed; and all DMA groups except for 101+ moved up.

Forecast Updates

Once again, I find myself disappointed in Q2 billing. It is simply not catching up to prior years, meaning it’s either very late or simply not coming. The hard truth is that most conversations I’ve had with markets over the last couple of weeks indicate that the pending is simply not there to justify the catch-up.

One culprit: ITN lost a major healthcare account, so budgets are down in most markets. Another factor is continuedreduced spending from telecom, with major reductions from Comcast and Charter, among others.

Finally, I likely overestimated Q2 because I was misled by Q1 and prior quarters. If my Q2 estimates are accurate, the quarter is softer relative to prior quarters than Q2 has ever been before. As I’ve seen the soft pacing, I’ve hoped that the patterns would hold and billing was simply late. But as I’ve said before, at some point you have to give up on patterns and accept what the data is telling you.

And so, a week out from the start of the quarter, the data is telling me the quarter will be softer, and I will lower my estimate accordingly.

We are currently in another big billing week: this Friday should see a lot of orders rush in. Additionally, some stations report that more buys will start the week of 4/5 than 3/30, which gives agencies another week to take their time booking business.

Maybe money truly is late and I’ll be raising my estimates in a week or two — I would welcome that outcome. But until then, get your pending buttoned up and let that be your guide, particularly for the first month of the quarter.

This week’s forecasts are:

Q1 vs. 2025:

• January: -3.9%

• February: +3.1%

• March: -5.3% – up 0.1 points from last week

• Q1 Total: -2.1% – up 0.1 points from last week

Q2 vs. 2025:

• April: -12.9% – down 1.1 points from last week

• May: -9.8% – down 2.3 points from last week

• June: -5.2% – up 1.8 points from last week

• Q2 Total: -9.4% down 0.9 points from last week

2026 vs. 2025:

• Q3: -10.5% – down 2.0 points

• Q4: -13.7% – down 2.0 points

• 2026: -8.9% – down 0.7 points