Q2 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Q2 Core pace saw a strong pickup this week, adding 2.5 points.

• April grew by 3.2 points.

• May increased by 2.1 points.

• June also increased by 2.1 points.

Drilling down into April, the growth was widespread, with just one category — Independent stations — showing any decline.

Forecast Updates

I have not enjoyed sharing my increasingly negative outlook for Q2 over the last few weeks. Frankly, I’ve been somewhat confounded by the data and the continued downward trend from prior quarters. The weakness was particularly difficult to grasp while we were experiencing a March that was fully in line with expectations — how could that month be so strong while the following months failed to hold up in comparison?

Now, just two days into the new broadcast quarter, I can’t say that patterns have fully normalized, but the significant and consistent pickup in pace across the quarter over the last week has me feeling more cautiously optimistic. Granted, not optimistic enough to raise any estimates, but for the first time in a few weeks, I don’t feel the need to lower them either. We’ll take that as a win.

I still have concerns about May in particular, as it needs to show additional pace growth to support my estimate. However, many stations are reporting slower buying within shorter windows, likely driven by economic and global uncertainty. As a result, May may continue to look soft until late-cycle dollars materialize. As it stands, my estimate would make it the weakest middle month we’ve seen, excluding 2020.

It also appears that some May demand may be shifting into June, which looks stronger not only for Fox stations with World Cup dollars, but across all other networks as well. Every affiliation is pacing better in June than in the other two months, some more significantly than others. One potential explanation is the earlier timing of Memorial Day this year. Typically, Memorial Day week is a low-demand period, and this year all of those softer days fall into May rather than June. Whatever the reason, if I do need to lower my May outlook, I may offset that with an increase to June.

For now, I’m taking a wait-and-see approach to assess how this week’s activity impacts the data. I’m hopeful that we’ve reached a floor for the quarter and that revisions from here will trend upward.

Here are my forecasts for the week:

Q2 vs. 2025:

• April: -12.9% – flat to last week

• May: -9.8% – flat to last week

• June: -5.2% – flat to last week

• Q2 Total: -9.4% — flat to last week

2026 vs. 2025:

• Q1: -2.0% — up 0.1 points from last week

• Q2: -9.4%

• Q3: -10.5%

• Q4: -13.7%

• 2026: -8.9%