Q3 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Q3 Core pace continues to trend down, dropping 1.9 points this week.

• July fell 0.9 points.

• August lost 2.3 points.

• September is off by 1.9 points.

Every category we measure saw the declines across the quarter.

Forecast Updates

While pace trended downward for July this week, that decline was already built into my estimate, so I didn’t see a need to make a change today.

August and September, however, are a different story. They’re dropping more than I’d like to see, and I’ve lowered their estimates slightly in response. August still looks relatively in line with July after adjusting for the World Cup: without Fox stations, July would likely finish somewhere in the -8% to -9% range, and my estimate for August is about -8%.

September, however, is more concerning. It is pacing particularly low for NBC, CBS, and Fox stations, at -16% to -19% — far softer than their single-digit declines in July and August (of course, Fox is up in July because of the World Cup). Last week, I suggested this may be due to late-breaking business, particularly for NFL games. That may very well still be true, but it may not be the entire story. Another factor is that this year’s NFL schedule pushes everything back by a week, meaning networks that carry weekly games have one fewer September game than they did last year.

I also wonder whether advertisers are being particularly cautious about September because of the recent Supreme Court decision allowing parties to purchase time at LUR. Some reports have suggested this will lead to increased political spending. For my part, I’m still on the fence about whether the total dollars will actually be larger. The Senate Majority PAC, for example, would have paid a $50,000 issue rate for an NFL spot before the decision but is now entitled to the $10,000 LUR. My guess is that PACs will spend roughly the same amount of money but buy more spots at a lower rate. At the very least, they’re likely to create significant preemptions, renegotiations, and an all-around makegood headache. Those are all good reasons why an agency that understands the implications of this ruling might decide to hold back and see how this first post-ruling election cycle unfolds.

As always, it’s much more difficult for me to determine whether business is simply late, wary of political disruption, or just not returning than it is for those of you at the group and station level. Your understanding of the status of your major accounts is the key to knowing whether a month is truly late or simply down. Stay on top of that, price to what the data is telling you, and you’ll be more successful than your peers.

Here are my estimates:

Q3 vs. 2025:

• July: -4.1% - flat to last week

• August: -7.7% - down 0.7 points from last week

• September: -17.8% – down 0.8 points from last week

• Q3 Total: -10.6% - down 0.6 points from last week

2026 vs. 2025:

• Q1: -3.0%

• Q2: -9.5%

• Q3: -10.6% - down 0.6 points from last week

• Q4: -13.9% - flat to last week

• 2026: -9.3% - down 0.2 points from last week