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Q1 Local+National
Week-to-Week Pacing Changes
Once again, Q1 Core pace improved slightly, adding 0.2 points.
· February fell by 0.6 points.
· March gained 0.9 points.
Quite a few categories saw March growth, with declines only in the following categories: CW and Indy stations; the South Atlantic region; and the top 20 DMA group.
Forecast Updates
February’s pace declines were expected this week, and I’m conservatively estimating a larger drop-off in the back half of the month, so we’re in the safe zone with my estimate of +4.4%. Of course, this is an estimate for the industry/markets, and it is being pulled upwards by the Olympics. Non-NBCs are more likely to see a February finish in the -6% range.
March had another great week, good enough that I feel more confident in my -3.1% estimate, with the possibility of a whole point of upside. But in the coming weeks in non-political years, some groups have added investment money. While I’m accounting for that in my forecasts, I want to be cautious not to get too optimistic. Perhaps another week of March growth will give me the confidence to push further.
While negotiations for Q2 are heating up, buys are still coming for Q1, with business from Purple Mattress and JP Morgan coming down for both February and March. And CBS stations continue to report late-breaking March Madness buying. More of this will undoubtedly drive up my expectations for the rest of the quarter.
Here are my forecasts for the week:
Q1 vs. 2025:
· -4.0% for January – up 0.1 points from last week
· +4.4% for February – flat to last week
· -3.1% for March – flat to last week
· -1.0% for the quarter – flat to last week
2026 vs. 2025:
· Q2: -6.8%
· Q3: -8.5%
· Q4: -11.7%
· 2026: -7.0%
Published: 02-09-2026
Published: 02-06-2026
Published: 02-04-2026