Q2 Local+National

This week, Q2 Core pace slipped a tenth of a point, driven by June’s half-point decline.

Q3 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Q3 Core pace fell 0.8 points in the last week.

• July dropped 1.2 points.

• August fell 0.8 points.

• September lost 0.6 points.

A few categories saw growth in July: NBC and CW affiliates; the Midwest and South Central regions; and the 66-100 and 101+ DMA groups.

Forecast Updates

June’s rally is officially over, with the month dropping half a point in the last week. Even so, it finished stronger relative to April and May across nearly every category. In fact, it is shaping up to be the strongest June on record outside of pandemic-impacted Q2 2020. Meanwhile, May was the weakest, even relative to Q2 2020.

We know that the Knicks-fueled NBA Finals and the World Cup contributed to June’s strength, but given that every major network also performed well during the month, there was clearly more at work than just sports.

We can hope that momentum carries into Q3, though that isn’t evident in the numbers yet. However, this is probably the least reliable week to use pace as an indicator of where Q3 will finish. The quarter is in the process of breaking, creating significant volatility, and the Juneteenth holiday falling on a Friday likely slowed both order submissions and order entry. I’m hopeful activity picks back up this week and that by July 3rd we’ll have caught up and gained a clearer view of the quarter.

Given that volatility, I’m holding all of my Q3 estimates, though I have lowered June slightly:

Q2 vs. 2025:

• April: -14.3%

• May: -12.7%

• June: -1.0% – down 0.5 points from last week

• Q2 Total: -9.4% - down 0.5 points from last week

2026 vs. 2025:

• Q1: -2.8%

• Q2: -9.4%

• Q3: -9.6%

• Q4: -13.0%

• 2026: -8.2%