Q4 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Q4 Core Pace climbed 0.5 points this week:

• October fell 0.4 points in its last days.

• November picked up 1.2 points.

• December added 0.3 points.

Many categories were up or flat week to week in November, though we did see declines for Fox affiliates, the Northeast and South Central regions, and the 21-65 and 66-100 DMA groups.

Forecast Updates

Well, there’s been a lot of wishful thinking about a post-election pop in business, and today’s data suggests that perhaps that wish is coming true! November saw significant and widespread pace improvements over the last week, and December climbed slightly as well, which is quite encouraging.

Chatter on last week’s calls suggests that much of this money is coming from the healthcare sector, with advertisers mentioned including Unlock Health, Centene, Florida Blue, Dignity Health, and others. Some stations, however, are concerned that the DR rates many of these advertisers are paying may not hold as more money comes in.

We’re also hearing about regional activity from advertisers including Waymo, Hy-Vee, and Ollie’s, adding to the encouraging signs of post-election spending.

But considering that our station group is projected to be only 70% sold by the end of the quarter, I don’t think significant preemptions are on the horizon, unless demand continues to grow substantially. Granted, a good portion of that available inventory is concentrated in the very low-demand back half of December. Still, I suspect that even if we excluded those weeks, projected sellouts wouldn’t exceed 80%.

Suffice it to say, stations are sitting on far too much unsold inventory. I don’t relish telling my stations that they’re going to waste 30% of their available inventory if they don’t find the business to fill it, and I can’t imagine any of you feel good about that harsh reality either. So do something about it! Reach out to those Core advertisers who were jostled around by political spending and offer them a hell of a holiday deal. Do it before the competition gets to them.

October finished stronger than I expected, as it appears some stations were able to squeeze additional dollars back into the month. With November and December also showing improvement, I’ve raised my estimates slightly across the quarter. These forecasts do require November and December to continue gaining pace, but that’s highly typical of post-election periods.

Here are my forecasts for the week:

Q4 vs. 2025:

• October: -19.9% – up 0.9 points from last week

• November: -6.0% – up 0.3 points from last week

• December: -7.4% – down 0.3 points from last week

• Q4 Total: -11.1% - up 0.4 points from last week

2026 vs. 2025:

• Q1: -3.1%

• Q2: -9.8%

• Q3: -9.2% - down 0.1 points from last week

• Q4: -11.1% - up 0.4 points from last week

• 2026: -8.3% - up 0.1 points from last week