Q3 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Q3 Core pace dropped 0.3 points this week due to September’s 0.4-point decline.

While most categories saw the September drop, we did see growth for Fox and Indy stations, the Midwest and Northeast regions, and the DMA 101+ group.

Q4 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Q4 Core pace is growing steadily, climbing 1.5 points in the last week, with improvements seen across all categories except the Northeast region.

Forecast Updates

As expected, 2026 continues to trend toward my forecasts, and at this point I don't see a reason to change my September through December outlook.

That said, if I make any adjustments over the next few weeks, they would most likely be upward—particularly for September and October—following last week's Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals decision involving political advertising rates.

After the Supreme Court's decision in NRSC v. FEC earlier this summer, I expressed concern that expanded coordination between parties and candidates, combined with the FCC's March guidance on Lowest Unit Charge (LUC), could lead to significantly more political advertising qualifying for candidate-level pricing. My concern wasn't necessarily that there would be less political spending, but rather that stations would face even greater inventory pressure without a corresponding increase in revenue. As a result, I kept my political-window forecasts conservative, anticipating more core business displacement than we've seen in prior election cycles.

Last week's Fourth Circuit decision substantially changes that outlook. The court set aside the FCC's March guidance that would have extended LUC eligibility to certain party committees and joint fundraising committees, emphasizing that the Supreme Court's elimination of coordinated spending limits does not, by itself, change who is entitled to Lowest Unit Charge under the Communications Act. While the ruling is expected to be appealed, the political window opens later this week, leaving very little time for any additional legal action to materially affect this election cycle.

From a yield management perspective, that's an important distinction. The Supreme Court's decision still allows parties to coordinate much more closely with candidates than in previous elections, so political demand could remain exceptionally strong. But under the current legal landscape, increased coordinated party spending does not automatically translate into increased LUC demand. That means the inventory pressure I feared may not be as severe, and when inventory does become constrained, stations have a greater opportunity to monetize that scarcity.

Of course, the legal questions aren't over. Both parties have already begun sending letters to broadcasters advocating their respective interpretations and, in some cases, warning of potential legal consequences depending on how stations handle party advertising. Ultimately, those decisions belong with your station's legal counsel, not us.

Our role is helping you navigate the economics. Regardless of how your legal team interprets these developments, political demand will continue to concentrate in a relatively small number of high-value dayparts and programs. We can help you identify where inventory is most likely to become constrained, evaluate sellout and displacement risk, and ensure your pricing reflects the true value of that inventory before political demand reaches its peak.

If you'd like to walk through your market's data and discuss your pricing strategy, your ShareBuilders consultant is ready to help. Just ask!

Here are my estimates for the week:

Q3 vs. 2025:

• July: -4.0% - down 0.1 points from last week

• August: -8.6% - down 0.2 points from last week

• September: -14.1% – flat to last week

• Q3 Total: -9.4% - down 0.1 points from last week

2026 vs. 2025:

• Q1: -3.1%

• Q2: -9.8%

• Q3: -9.4% - down 0.1 points from last week

• Q4: -13.0% - flat to last week

• 2026: -8.8% - flat to last week