Q3 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

This week Q3 Core pace fell 0.8 points.

• July dropped 0.4 points.

• August fell 1.3 points.

• September lost 0.6 points.

Studying the August categories, every single category experienced pacing decline except for the West region.

Forecast Updates

The quarter continues to trend down, but reports of late-breaking business continue as well. Today, a Top 10 market NSM shared with me that over the last week he suddenly started seeing requests for NFL buys in both of the markets he manages. It’s as if buyers just woke up and remembered that the preseason starts in two weeks. Of course, we still have to contend with political dollars displacing Core business, as well as advertisers avoiding the window and the disruption it brings, but the money is still out there. It’s just taking its sweet time to get here.

I think all of that bodes well for September, but August continues to disappoint, and I’ve lowered my estimate by more than a point to reflect that. I’d love to see a rush of business come in later this week and prove me wrong, but there just isn’t that much inventory to sell in August, and I’m not convinced there’s enough pent-up demand to justify this much lateness, at least not the way there appears to be in September.

However, if you’re in a market expecting significant political spending in September, I encourage you to front-load as much as you possibly can into August. Many experts believe the recent Supreme Court ruling making party-affiliated PACs eligible for LUR will lead to a greater concentration of in-window dollars where LUR applies, making inventory management a nightmare in September while leaving August relatively open. Shifting your loyal Core advertisers earlier in the quarter would be doing them — and yourselves — a tremendous favor.

Here are my estimates for the week:

Q3 vs. 2025:

• July: -4.4% - down 0.3 points from last week

• August: -9.0% - down 1.3 points from last week

• September: -17.8% – flat to last week

• Q3 Total: -11.1% - down 0.5 points from last week

2026 vs. 2025:

• Q1: -3.0%

• Q2: -9.5%

• Q3: -11.1% - down 0.5 points from last week

• Q4: -13.9% - flat to last week

• 2026: -9.3% - down 0.2 points from last week