Q3 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Q3 Core pace is back on the upswing, gaining half a point week over week.

• August added 1.3 points.

• September grew by 0.5 points.

August’s growth was seen in nearly all categories, with only CW and Indy stations showing declines.

Forecast Updates

Well, if that August rally isn’t proof of late-breaking business, I don’t know what is! Widespread growth of that magnitude in the week leading up to the start of the quarter absolutely signals buyers waiting until the last minute to place their buys. However, that strategy might backfire in political-heavy markets between now and November. At the very least, it’s going to create a lot of inventory management chaos.

Despite the rally, I still see a few data points suggesting I may need to pull back my August estimate from -9% to -10.5%. However, the jump was so significant that I find that difficult to believe, so I’m going to give it one more week before making any adjustments to the lower forecast I set last week. As it stands, my -9% estimate still makes August weaker relative to the rest of the quarter than we typically see, though the same could be said for May, the second month of last quarter. It may be a second-month phenomenon, or it could be related to the World Cup pulling dollars out of the middle of the quarter. I think we can wait one more week to see how the month fully breaks before making another adjustment.

There are also a lot of positive stories about pending avails and recent ad buys, with new business coming down from the likes of Charter, Moderna, and AT&T. On the downside, we’ve seen cancels from fast food (Jack in the Box and Krystal), legal, and home services.

Now that we’re one month into Q3, with about 90% of the money in, we can start looking ahead to Q4. If my forecast is on target, stations should have roughly 40% of Q4 booked and be on pace to reach a little over 50% by September 1st. From there, the money typically comes in more heavily, with roughly 77% of the quarter booked by its October 1st start. That number will be higher in markets expecting significant political spending and lower in those that aren’t. So buckle up. The quarter should begin breaking more heavily from here, but, as August has proven, it may all arrive at once.Here are my estimates for the week:

Q3 vs. 2025:

• July: -4.2% - up 0.2 points from last week

• August: -9.0% - flat to last week

• September: -17.8% – flat to last week

• Q3 Total: -11.0% - up 0.1 points from last week

2026 vs. 2025:

• Q1: -3.0%

• Q2: -9.7%

• Q3: -11.0% - flat to last week

• Q4: -13.9% - flat to last week

• 2026: -9.3% - down 0.2 points from last week