Q4 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

This week, Q4 Core pace dropped 0.5 points:

• October fell 1.7 points.

• November dropped 0.5 points.

• December grew 0.5 points.

While most categories fell in October, some were flat or up: CWs were flat, the Northeast and South Central regions grew, and the 66-100 DMA group improved.

Forecast Updates

The last broadcast quarter of the year has officially begun… how did we get here so quickly?

The good news is that the quarter is starting off as I have been forecasting. Yes, pace has been falling, but that has always been built into my estimates. And not just for October, where you would expect to see declines as political pushes money out. I’ve also been planning for declines in November and December — perhaps too conservatively, as displaced October dollars could shift into the rest of the quarter and actually grow pace.

But I’m consistent: I like to estimate safe numbers. I’m especially conservative now because the majority of our stations are sitting on too much inventory post-election, and that represents a real waste of potential revenue if so many spots remain unsold. Hear me when I tell you that all of our data — both aggregated pacing and projected sellouts by daypart — points toward an opportunity to price aggressively and grow share. Do it, and make the most of your inventory’s potential.

I’m also including a quarter-by-quarter breakdown of my 2027 estimates today for the first time. I’m estimating that the year will finish down 4.7% from 2026, though that translates to a 12.8% decline from 2025. I’ll update these numbers periodically as Q4 develops, since this year’s performance is one of the data points I use to forecast next year.

Here are my forecasts for the week:

Q3 vs. 2025:

• July: -3.8%

• August: -8.9%

• September: -13.3% – flat to last week

• Q3 Total: -9.1% - flat to last week

Q4 vs. 2025:

• October: -19.6% – up 1.2 points from last week

• November: -8.1% – up 0.6 points from last week

• December: -8.1% – down 0.6 points from last week

• Q4 Total: -11.9% - up 0.5 points from last week

2026 vs. 2025:

• Q1: -3.1%

• Q2: -9.8%

• Q3: -9.1% - flat to last week

• Q4: -11.9% - up 0.5 points from last week

• 2026: -8.5% - up 0.2 points from last week