Q3 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Q3 Core pace fell 0.2 points this week, with September dropping 0.3 points. While most categories saw the September declines, some improved, including: CBS and Indy stations, and the South Central and West regions.

Q4 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Q4 Core pace fell 0.2 points in the last week.

• October lost 0.9 points.

• November grew by half a point.

• December lost just a tenth of a point.

Only the Independent station group and the South Central region saw any improvement in October.

Forecast Updates

We are quickly coming up on the big rush of Q4 business typical of the back half of September. Between now and October 1, we’ll see somewhere between 15 and 20 points of business come in. Whether or not you’ll be able to hold onto all of it in October is another story.

If you’re in a market expecting heavy political spending, displacement of Core business remains a significant concern. Many advertisers have already decided to avoid the month, and some of the biggest players, like ITN and Active, are rumored to have smaller budgets in many markets, perhaps in part to avoid October’s political chaos. This is why I’m estimating October pace will fall more than 10 points from where it sits today.

Remember that I’m particularly concerned about displacement because of the increased number of LUR spots you may see from political party committees and joint fundraising groups. These spots could bump Core heavily, particularly spots booked at the lowest priority rates. I encourage you to continue front-loading what you can into the weeks of 9/28 and 10/5, which remain quite open compared with 10/12–10/26 in many markets.

Despite my crowdout concerns, I still like my forecasts for Q4 and have even moved October and November up slightly this week. I’ve pulled December back a bit, as it hasn’t grown as much as I expected. It was only a half-point decrease, however, and there’s plenty of time for it to tick back up again.

Here are my forecasts for the week:

Q3 vs. 2025:

• July: -3.9%

• August: -8.7%

• September: -13.1% – up 0.3 points from last week

• Q3 Total: -9.0% - up 0.1 points from last week

Q4 vs. 2025:

• October: -21.4% – up 0.7 points from last week

• November: -9.4% – up 0.3 points from last week

• December: -7.5% – down 0.5 points from last week

• Q4 Total: -12.8% - up 0.2 points from last week

2026 vs. 2025:

• Q1: -3.1%

• Q2: -9.8%

• Q3: -9.0% - up 0.1 points from last week

• Q4: -12.8% - up 0.2 points from last week

• 2026: -8.7% - up 0.1 points from last week