Q3 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Just as it did last week, Q3 Core pace gained 0.8 points this week.

• July picked up 1.2 points.

• August added 0.9 points.

• September grew by just 0.1 points.

Not all categories experienced the July growth, with declines seen for: ABC and CW affiliates and the Northeast region.

Forecast Updates

While you can almost certainly thank the U.S. Men’s National Team for some extra dollars in your market this July – and, if you’re not a Fox station, also thank them for losing to Belgium – I’m happy to report that the continued pace growth we’re seeing this week is definitely not all World Cup-driven. Growth was seen across all three months of the quarter, as well as across most of the categories we measure. Clearly, dollars are breaking a bit later, but we’re also seeing a slightly stronger July than Q2 would have suggested for most – though not all – networks.

I suspect we can thank improving gas prices and the resulting improvement in consumer and advertiser sentiment for this July glow-up. Gas prices are down 9% from a month ago, and everyone has to be feeling at least a little more positive about that. Of course, they’re still 21% higher than this time last year, but the steady decline over the last month is encouraging nonetheless.

It’s also possible that advertisers are concerned about eventual political displacement or higher rates in September and are instead loading up their schedules in the earlier part of the quarter, where better deals can still be found. Interestingly, they don’t seem to be loading up August yet, with stations pacing about five points softer than July. As I’ve shared before, I’m straddling the line between assuming the second month of the quarter is simply breaking late or that it will ultimately be softer than July. Other than the World Cup lift, I don’t see a compelling reason for August to underperform July, though the relative bargain rates available in July may be contributing to its strength. For now, I continue to have confidence in my assumption that August is simply breaking a bit late.

I have held or raised my third-quarter estimates slightly, and I continue to err on the conservative side. All three months have upside, especially July and August, but I’d like to see more pace improvement before increasing my estimates further.

So here are this month’s estimates:

Q3 vs. 2025:

• July: -5.6% - up 0.8 points from last week

• August: -7.2% - flat to last week

• September: -15.9% – up 0.5 points from last week

• Q3 Total: -10.1% - up 0.4 points from last week

2026 vs. 2025:

• Q1: -3.0%

• Q2: -9.3%

• Q3: -10.1% - up 0.4 points from last week

• Q4: -13.0%

• 2026: -8.9%