Q3 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

We can report another week of Q3 Core pace growth, this time by 0.3 points.

• August grew by 0.9 points.

• September picked up 0.4 points.

It appears that much of the growth came in the largest markets, as every single affiliation and regional category grew, but within the DMA group, only the top 20 saw pacing gains.

Forecast Updates

So another week of growth is certainly exciting, but as indicated in the analysis, that growth was concentrated in the larger markets. The primary driver is DraftKings, which is placing significant buys promoting its prediction market. Because this isn’t sports betting, it is apparently legal to promote in states where sports betting isn't, making this meaningful new business for many markets. It’s a short buy spanning August and September, with no certainty that it will continue beyond the September 7 end date, which conveniently falls the day before the general election political window opens. So we’ll enjoy it while it lasts!

Beyond the DraftKings activity, many markets are reporting significant outstanding football packages from auto advertisers, including Toyota, Ford, Chevy, and Hyundai. We’ve discussed September’s weakness over the last few weeks and identified late NFL business as one possible driver, so knowing this money is out there is a big relief.

We still need that money to hit, however, so I’m keeping my forecasts relatively conservative, straddling the line between September being late and September being soft due to the shift in the NFL schedule and the impact political will have on the month. As always, if you have solid pending that points to a stronger September (and beyond), price more optimistically. Otherwise, don’t hold rates when you don’t have the pending to support that demand.

I’m raising September slightly to reflect the DraftKings activity. I may very well increase both August and September further next week once all of the data reflects those buys, but until then, I’m staying conservative.

Here are my forecasts for the week:

Q3 vs. 2025:

• July: -4.1% - up 0.1 points from last week

• August: -9.0% - flat to last week

• September: -17.5% – up 0.3 points from last week

• Q3 Total: -10.8% - up 0.2 points from last week

2026 vs. 2025:

• Q1: -3.0%

• Q2: -9.7%

• Q3: -10.8% - up 0.2 points from last week

• Q4: -13.9% - flat to last week

• 2026: -9.4% - flat to last week