Q4 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Q4 Core pace lost 1.4 points this week:

• October dropped 1.0 point.

• November fell 1.5 points.

• December declined 2.4 points.

Every category we measure experienced the November declines.

Forecast Updates

Pacing dropped quite a bit week over week, particularly in December. October’s declines are to be expected as we compare against the final weeks of heavy political spending last year, but I wish I had better numbers to report for November and December.

Still, I remind myself that we’re only a few weeks into the quarter, and fourth quarters are typically full of positive surprises. Advertisers often discover they have money left to spend as the year winds down, and many of you are optimistic that some advertisers will return with significant post-election spending after choosing to sit out October’s political chaos.

Of course, I’m not a fan of forecasting or pricing based on optimism alone. But our historical trends already account for post-election spending and late-breaking surprises, so my forecasts reflect those expectations as well. Even so, I’m keeping my estimates on the conservative side until we see more evidence that those dollars are materializing.

Here are my forecasts for the week:

Q3 vs. 2025:

• July: -3.7%

• August: -8.8%

• September: -13.3% – up 0.1 points from last week

• Q3 Total: -9.1% - flat to last week

Q4 vs. 2025:

• October: -19.5% – down 0.9 points from last week

• November: -6.3% – down 0.7 points from last week

• December: -7.1% – flat to last last week

• Q4 Total: -11.0% - down 0.6 points from last week

2026 vs. 2025:

• Q1: -3.1%

• Q2: -9.8%

• Q3: -9.1% - flat to last week

• Q4: -11.0% - down 0.6 points from last week

• 2026: -8.2% - down 0.1 points from last week