Q2 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Like last week, Q2 Core pace moved in both directions throughout the week but ultimately remained flat Monday to Monday.

• April gained 0.3 points.

• May declined by 0.2 points.

• June fell by 0.4 points.

Quite a few categories showed growth in April, with declines seen only for ABC and MyNet affiliations, the South Atlantic, South Central, and West regions, and the 101+ DMA group.

Forecast Updates

I went fairly deep into the dynamics of each second quarter month last week, so I’ll spare you the exhaustive detail this week and focus on the key takeaway: I’m seeing more of the same. May remains unusually soft, while June looks particularly strong relative to the other two months.

I still think there are a few factors that could explain this, including some avoidance of May due to political activity(though only twelve states have primaries/runoffs in the month), as well as the full low-demand Memorial Day week falling into calendar May and not dragging down any of calendar June. I also continue to see quite a few markets with stronger sellouts across all June weeks than across all May weeks, suggesting that advertisers are legitimately spending more in the third month than the middle month.

Yes, late-breaking business could still be an explanation, and the fact that April is still growing in pace firmly supports that theory. If we are adding more in-month business than we did at this time last year, it stands to reason that this trend could continue through the rest of the quarter. But that raises a key question: why does May appear laterthan June? And do you have solid pending to support that lateness assumption?

Because this week’s observations are largely consistent with last week’s, the changes I’m making to our estimates are also similar: I’m holding April, lowering May, and raising June slightly.

Here are this week’s forecasts:

Q2 vs. 2025:

• April: -13.5% – flat to last week

• May: -11.7% – down 0.7 points from last week

• June: -3.6% – up 0.2 points from last week

• Q2 Total: -9.7% - down 0.2 points from last week

2026 vs. 2025:

• Q1: -2.0%

• Q2: -9.7%

• Q3: -10.5%

• Q4: -13.7%

• 2026: -8.9%