Q3 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

This week Q3 Core pace picked up 0.8 points.

• July added 0.6 points.

• August grew by 0.8 points.

• September moved up 0.6 points.

While most categories experienced the July growth, a few saw declines: Fox stations, the South Atlantic region, and the 21-65 and 101+ DMA groups.

Forecast Updates

I’m happy to report that Q3 has finally stopped its steep declines, with fairly widespread pace improvement over the last week. Pace is still negative, but the sharp drops that began in early June appear to have slowed.

Many stations are currently reporting late-breaking business. It sounds like July has largely caught up, with buyers placing orders monthly rather than quarterly. As a result, August and September are still waiting on dollars that might otherwise have already been booked. September, however, has already benefited from some sports buys, leaving the relatively sports-light August looking particularly weak at many stations.

If prior months, especially July, are any indication, the August money is there but simply late. On the other hand, we did see an unusually weak second month of Q2, with May contributing less to the quarter than ever before, so it’s possible this represents a new trend. We’ll need another couple of weeks before we know whether August is truly weak or simply late, but my guidance remains the same: let your pending be your guide. If the money isn’t there, keep pricing August aggressively.

My forecast for August splits the difference between lateness and weakness. I’ve lowered it slightly in case the month is simply soft, but if the money proves to be late, I’ll likely raise it by a point or so in the coming weeks. I’ve also lowered September’s estimate slightly. Like August, if what currently looks like weakness turns out to be lateness, I’ll adjust that estimate upward as well.

Here are my forecasts today:

Q3 vs. 2025:

• July: -6.4% - flat to last week

• August: -7.2% - down 1.7 points from last week

• September: -16.4% – down 1.0 point from last week

• Q3 Total: -10.5% - down 0.9 points from last week

2026 vs. 2025:

• Q1: -3.0%

• Q2: -9.3%

• Q3: -10.5%

• Q4: -13.0%

• 2026: -8.9%