Q3 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

We saw a small one-tenth of a point improvement in Q3 core pace this week due to September’s pickup of half a point.

Most categories saw the September growth, though a few declined: ABC and Indy stations, the South Central region, and the 66-100 DMA group.

Q4 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

For most of the last week, Q4 pace grew, but fell in the end due to the late Labor Day holiday. So Tuesday to Tuesday it dropped 0.4 points, but if we had measured a day earlier, it would have climbed 2.0 points. Top 20 markets saw declines across the entire week, but all others experienced the growth.

Forecast Updates

September continues to look stronger than expected thanks to several late surprise buys on the National line, including sports betting and investment deals. I still expect meaningful political displacement now that we're officially in the political window and past the Labor Day holiday. As a result, I've raised my estimate for the month, but September is likely to finish at least a point below where it sits today.

Political displacement has become an even more interesting topic thanks to the recent series of legal rulings surrounding Lowest Unit Charge (LUC). As you've probably heard by now, the Supreme Court stayed the Fourth Circuit's earlier decision that had set aside the FCC's March guidance regarding LUC eligibility for certain coordinated party advertising and joint fundraising committees. Practically speaking, that means the FCC's guidance is back in effect while the litigation continues.

From a yield management perspective, we're effectively back where we were a few weeks ago. The Supreme Court's June decision in NRSC v. FEC allows political parties to coordinate much more closely with candidates, and under the FCC's current guidance, certain coordinated party advertising may once again receive LUC treatment. The result is that more political demand may enter the market at discounted rates rather than premium rates. That means heavier inventory consumption without a proportional increase in revenue, especially if lower pricing encourages those buyers to purchase even more inventory.

If you're in a competitive political market, expect inventory to become tighter than ever before. You'll likely displace more Core advertisers, particularly those who didn't pay a premium for political displacement protection. Historically, those headaches have often been offset by exceptionally strong political revenue. This year, however, a larger share of that demand may come at LUC, making it harder to translate tighter inventory into the same level of revenue growth.

So how should you prepare?

First and foremost, follow the guidance of your legal counsel regarding how your station interprets and applies these rules.

From a pricing standpoint, our advice remains straightforward: Start with realistic expectations for total political demand each month. Then estimate how much of that demand is likely to come at LUC versus higher on the rate card. Share those assumptions – along with the premium you expect top-of-card inventory to command – with your consultant every week so your pricing strategy can evolve as conditions change.

Here's the distinction I think is most important: price for the demand that is coming, not simply for the revenue you expect to hold. If Political demand is going to consume inventory and force out Core advertisers, that demand should still influence your pricing today. Don't lower your rates simply because you know some of today's core business will ultimately be displaced. Instead, let that displacement flow through your official financial forecast. Your pricing should reflect the scarcity created by demand; your forecast should reflect the revenue you realistically expect to keep.

Finally, start managing inventory now. Clear out underpriced business where you reasonably can. Front-load schedules when appropriate. Move spots into lower-demand inventory where possible. Work with your traffic departments and hubs as far in advance as practical. The more flexibility you create before inventory tightens, the more options you'll have when the political rush inevitably arrives.

This is exactly where ShareBuilders can help. We help you identify where inventory pressure is building, where your biggest pricing opportunities exist, and how demand is shifting from week to week. You don't need to predict the future perfectly, you simply need timely information and the willingness to adjust as conditions change. We'll help you do exactly that.

I have not changed my Q4 estimates this week, so below you’ll see just an update for September and Q3:

Q3 vs. 2025:

• July: -4.0% - flat to last week

• August: -8.6% - flat to last week

• September: -13.4% – up 0.7 points from last week

• Q3 Total: -9.1% - up 0.3 points from last week

2026 vs. 2025:

• Q1: -3.1%

• Q2: -9.8%

• Q3: -9.4% - up 0.3 points from last week

• Q4: -13.0% - flat to last week

• 2026: -8.7% - up 0.1 points from last week