Q4 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

This week Q4 core pace fell 1.0 point:

• October lost 1.9 points.

• November dropped just 0.1 points.

• December fell 0.8 points.

The following categories saw growth for November: ABC and Fox stations, the Midwest and South Atlantic regions, and 21-65 and 66-100 DMA groups.

Forecast Updates

I may have been on a bit of a vacation high last week when I forecasted Q4, as I find myself needing to pull back some of the substantial increases I made. But the good news is that I raised the quarter overall by 2.0 points last week, and I'm only lowering it by 0.5 points today. So we're still looking better than we were a couple of weeks ago. I've just tempered my expectations slightly.

Last week, I talked about some new political displacement patterns that look different from prior election cycles. Less displacement in October could mean fewer preempted dollars returning in November and December. That possibility is still on my mind today and has me cautious about my estimates for the quarter. If Q4 doesn't follow the patterns we saw in 2022 and 2024, I could be too low on October and, conversely, too high on November and December.

December, by virtue of being the furthest away, carries the most risk. On the other hand, at this same point in Q3, I was far too cautious about September, which finished almost four points stronger than I had forecast. So I'm hopeful we'll see a similar late-breaking surge in December.

For now, I've made small adjustments and will be ready to make further tweaks in the coming weeks as the picture becomes clearer. Speaking of positive developments, there was quite a bit of encouraging revenue news this week, with Buick expected to add a heavy-up in the back half of the quarter, T-Mobile dollars coming down, and Bet365 placing more business. Keep that coming, and my forecasts could be right on target!

Here are my forecasts for the week:

Q3 vs. 2025:

• July: -3.7%

• August: -8.8%

• September: -13.3% – up 0.1 points from last week

• Q3 Total: -9.1% - flat to last week

Q4 vs. 2025:

• October: -18.6% – down 0.5 points from last week

• November: -5.6% – down 0.5 points from last week

• December: -7.1% – down 0.6 points from last week

• Q4 Total: -10.4% - down 0.5 points from last week

2026 vs. 2025:

• Q1: -3.1%

• Q2: -9.8%

• Q3: -9.1% - flat to last week

• Q4: -10.4% - down 0.5 points from last week

• 2026: -8.1% - down 0.1 points from last week