Q1 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Q1 Core pace was flat week over week.

• February dropped 0.1 points.

• March improved by 0.2 points.

While March was up overall, more categories saw declines than gains. Improvements were seen only for Fox and CW stations; the Midwest, Northeast, and South Central regions; and the 21–65 and 66–100 DMA groups.

Forecast Updates

I am lowering my outlook very slightly for both February and March this week, by just a couple of tenths of a point. My March estimate now puts the month softer relative to the rest of the quarter than we’ve typically seen, even in the last two Winter Olympics years (2018 and 2022).

I hope this is simply an indication of the late-breaking nature of March Madness and other March business, likely due to the focus the NFL postseason and Olympics pull away from the last major sporting event of Q1. But the specter of an over-supply of sports also weighs on my mind, and I worry there simply isn’t sufficient demand to fully capitalize on the tournament.

If March is softer than usual, which month is stronger? The answer may prove to be February, which is currently on track to meet the revenue contribution of February 2018. Of course, this was also a Winter Olympics year, but given the declining demand for the Olympics in recent cycles, I wouldn’t have predicted 2026 to match that performance. In fact, I don’t believe the Olympics alone are driving the strong month, but instead record-high Super Bowl rates. This underscores the trend we’ve seen over the last few months: while linear TV demand is clearly declining, some advertisers will still pay top dollar for premium inventory. The definition of “premium,” however, may be narrowing — or at the very least becoming constrained when there is an abundance of premium supply. That dynamic may explain why March Madness is softer, while the Masters, NBA Finals, and even the World Cup (USA matches) may prove more resilient. We’ll see how it plays out.

Here are my forecasts for the week:

Q1 vs. 2025:

• -4.0% for January – flat to last week

• +4.2% for February – down 0.2 points from last week

• -3.4% for March – down 0.3 points from last week

• -1.1% for the quarter – down 0.1 points from last week

2026 vs. 2025:

• Q2: -6.8%

• Q3: -8.5%

• Q4: -11.7%

• 2026: -7.0%