Q3 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

This week Q3 Core pace fell 0.2 points, with September dropping 0.4. A few categories showed small amounts of growth: NBC, CW, and Indy affiliates and the West region.

Q4 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Q4 Core pace lost 2.8 points in the last week.

• October dropped 3.1 points.

• November fell by 2.3 points.

• December moved down 3.3 points.

Every category we measure experienced the October declines.

Forecast Updates

On the surface, this was a bad week for Q4 business, with every month losing 2–3 pace points. However, this week and next are the absolute worst weeks to rely on pacing to forecast future revenue. We are now in the midst of such an active booking window — both this year and in prior years — that pacing is incredibly volatile.

If ITN came in on September 21 last year, for example, but comes in on September 23 this year, your pace on September 22 is going to give you a falsely negative outlook for the quarter. And, of course, the same thing can happen on the other side of the coin: if ITN comes in a couple of days early this year, you’ll think your finish is on track to be stronger than it truly will be. In the end, if you’re looking to pace or the booking channel for a sense of Q4’s true finish, you must account for the timing of your major accounts.

If you use ShareBuilders CRM, your consultant will look at the advertiser detail to help weed through the noise and get to a clearer picture. If you don’t use our CRM, bringing the early/late/up/down status of your top 10 accounts to your ShareBuilders call would be incredibly helpful.

So, pacing declined this week. That could be because the majority of our stations are seeing accounts come in late. But it could also be that some accounts came in early this year, and now those same accounts are catching up in last year’s numbers and pulling this year’s pace down. I’ve seen accounts like GM, Charter, and Comcast hit the books a couple of days early for some of my stations, while others are still waiting for some of those same accounts to come in. It’s possible that, on a global scale, we’ve been experiencing a little earliness, but as ever, your own data will be more useful.

Here’s the good news: I’ve been estimating that pacing would fall for weeks. The data suggested that the quarter’s true finish was lower than where pacing was sitting, which may very well be because some money came in early. Additionally, much of October’s decline will come from political displacing Core dollars. But that money can also shift into November and December at the last minute, meaning those months may fall before climbing again.

Q4 is nearly upon us. Make sure you’re using ShareBuilders — or your other tools — to really dial in on these timing factors and price realistically, and you’ll be in good shape heading into the last quarter of the year!

Here are my forecasts for the week:

Q3 vs. 2025:

• July: -3.8%

• August: -8.9%

• September: -13.3% – down 0.2 points from last week

• Q3 Total: -9.1% - down 0.1 points from last week

Q4 vs. 2025:

• October: -20.8% – up 0.6 points from last week

• November: -8.7% – up 0.7 points from last week

• December: -7.5% – flat to last week

• Q4 Total: -12.4% - up 0.4 points from last week

2026 vs. 2025:

• Q1: -3.1%

• Q2: -9.8%

• Q3: -9.0% - down 0.1 points from last week

• Q4: -12.8% - up 0.4 points from last week

• 2026: -8.7% - flat to last week