Q1 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Q1 core pace dropped a big 2.5 points week over week.

• February lost 2.0 points.

• March plummeted 2.9 points.

Every category we measure experienced the March dropoff.

Forecast Updates

I warned you last week that March was exhibiting some real softness, and while I hoped it was driven by lateness, I feared the worst: the NFL postseason and Olympics pulled dollars from the month. This week, I can say that, barring any last-minute — but very welcome — surprises, March will indeed be softer than hoped.

This would make March the second-weakest March relative to the rest of the quarter that we've seen in the last eight years, with only March 2024 weaker. That year saw a particularly strong January/February mix, I imagine due to robust NFL sales, and it's clear that we're seeing a version of that again this year, exacerbated by the Olympics. Remember what I shared last week: it was the Super Bowl that really propelled NBC to a stronger-than-ever February, not the Olympics.

In the end, what's crystal clear is that the NFL remains the premium revenue driver for linear TV, and all other sports just don't compare. This will undoubtedly be top of mind for networks if the NFL forces early broadcast rights negotiations, as recent rumors suggest they may.

Stations are seeing strong sellouts for March, with one significant exception: the week of 3/23 is consistently open, much more so than the weeks of 3/9 and 3/16. This is very strange for the last week of a month and quarter, when demand is usually inordinately high. But it is a clear trend — and an opportunity for makegoods and burning off underdelivery if the cash demand never shows up. Don't avoid putting out some aggressive rates to snatch up late-breaking business. Clearly, March revenue needs all the help it can get.

We'll end on some good news: As we move closer to clarity on Q1's finish, I can more confidently adjust Q2, and I'm raising my estimates slightly. All three months move up, and the quarter's overall forecast climbs by half a point.

Here are my forecasts for the week:

Q1 vs. 2025:

• January: -4.0% (flat to last week)

• February: +3.7% (down 0.5 points from last week)

• March: -5.2% (down 1.8 points from last week)

• Q1 Total: -1.9% (down 0.8 points from last week)

2026 vs. 2025:

• Q2: -6.3% (up 0.5 points from last week)

• Q3: -8.5%

• Q4: -11.7%

• Full Year 2026: -7.1% (down 0.1 points from last week)