Q3 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Q3 Core pace grew again this week, picking up 0.6 points.

• August lost 0.2 points.

• September added a big 1.9 points.

While most categories fell in August, there was some growth seen for Fox and Independent stations, the South Atlantic and South Central regions, and the 21-65 and 66-100 DMA groups.

Forecast Updates

I tightened the transitions, reduced repetition, and clarified a few cause-and-effect relationships while keeping your analysis and voice intact.

I delayed my summary of last week’s activity until the bulk of the massive DraftKings buys came down, but some continued to trickle in as the week went on, contributing to the improvements we saw, particularly in the South. The money ultimately went only to larger markets in states where legalized sports betting doesn’t already exist, so not everyone benefited. Still, I imagine it provided a meaningful boost for quite a few ownership groups in an otherwise soft Q3.

Q3’s softness continues to be dominated by a post-World Cup spending lull. Preseason NFL is definitely looking slow, likely due in part to the proliferation of home-team broadcast deals, which has created an influx of supply without enough demand to go around. On top of that, September NFL is still slow to break. We continue to hear about pending auto buys, though a couple of advertisers, namely Nissan and Toyota, have started placing those dollars. Still, we’re likely to see a softer-than-usual September because of the regular-season schedule shift and the loss of one week’s worth of games.

Evidence of that September lateness can be seen in the significant pace pickup we saw this week. The improvement was more substantial on CBS, NBC, and Fox and less pronounced on ABC, suggesting NFL activity. Larger markets also accounted for the majority of the growth, so hopefully what we’re seeing is big football buys hitting the larger markets first.

In the end, September’s momentum was strong enough to warrant a small forecast increase, which brings the quarter up slightly as well. The improvement has me feeling a little more positive about Q4, but I’m holding my estimates this week. I’m still concerned that political displacement will be a significant drag on October, and I want to see how spending picks up when the window opens in September before making any major changes to my core forecast.

Here are my estimates for the week:

Q3 vs. 2025:

• July: -3.9% - up 0.2 points from last week

• August: -9.0% - flat to last week

• September: -16.4% – up 1.1 points from last week

• Q3 Total: -10.4% - up 0.4 points from last week

2026 vs. 2025:

• Q1: -3.1%

• Q2: -9.8%

• Q3: -10.4% - up 0.4 points from last week

• Q4: -13.9% - flat to last week

• 2026: -9.4% - flat to last week