Weekly Forecast

Q4 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Q4 Core pace picked up 0.2 points this week:

October fell 0.6 points.
November gained 0.6 points.
December picked up 0.9 points.

Nearly every category saw the November climb, though drops were seen for CW affiliates and the Northeast and West regions.

Forecast Updates

In many markets, we are witnessing an unfamiliar phenomenon in this political cycle: less political displacement caused by oversold inventory and preemption, and more advertisers intentionally avoiding booking October in the first place. That means an unusual amount of available inventory at the same time as record-breaking political spending. It’s wild!

Certainly, some of this is due to shifting political priorities as money moves from markets where the polls are pointing to a clear winner (North Carolina) toward markets where things are still very much in play (Kansas). But it’s also becoming apparent that Core advertisers were burned by primary spending in many markets — or by previous political cycles — and have learned to simply stay away from the drama and inventory pressure.

Whatever the reason, many stations are finding themselves with too much inventory in October and strong sellouts in November and December. It may feel strange — or risky — to get aggressive in October when you’re still seeing a lot of political spending, but this is a good time to take care of some of your Core advertisers. Meanwhile, you can’t count on displaced October dollars making November and December break late. If your post-election sellouts are already strong, you should be keeping those weeks priced quite high.

In the last two election years, 2022 and 2024, our Core dollar pace only declined from this point forward, with essentially 100% of the month already booked and dollars simply churning as political pushed out non-political advertisers. I don’t think that will happen to anywhere near the same extent this year. Stations in both heavy- and lighter-political markets still have October inventory to sell. As a result, I’ve raised my estimate not only for October, but for the rest of the quarter as well. We’re seeing a bit of a rally for Q4 right now, and I’m thrilled to report it.

In the end, your market or station’s conditions may differ from the national averages, so be sure to drill down into your own details to understand where you have opportunities and where you face challenges.

Here are my forecasts for the week:

Q3 vs. 2025: