Q3 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

This week Q3 Core pace fell slightly, losing 0.2 points.

• August was flat week over week.

• September dropped 0.4 points.

Most categories lost pace in September or were merely flat week over week, but ABC and Fox affiliates, the Northeast region, and the 101+ DMA group saw small increases.

Forecast Updates

Things are looking up for September through the rest of the year, perhaps because we’re finally starting to see the late NFL business everyone has been talking about for the last few weeks. October, of course, will still suffer from advertiser avoidance and core displacement due to strong political dollars, but the entire quarter is looking a little better.

Speaking of advertiser avoidance, I’m starting to notice in some markets that there are fewer spots booked in October and more in November and December, particularly in Prime. Part of this may very well be by design: stations expecting heavy October political spending are deliberately keeping low-paying core business out of the month to preserve inventory for higher rates. But I also think some advertisers are simply avoiding October and loading up more heavily in the post-election weeks, assuming political will be a problem for them, even in markets where political spending might not be particularly high.

Sellers may need to do some educating with agencies and advertisers, letting them know they have a plan for mitigating preemptions or that political isn’t even a particular threat in their market. I’d hate to see October inventory go to waste in these markets, so pay attention to your inventory charts and determine whether October is more open than November and December than it should be, given your overall forecasted demand.Here are my estimates for the week:

Q3 vs. 2025:

• July: -3.9% - flat to last week

• August: -8.4% - up 0.6 points from last week

• September: -14.1% – up 2.3 points from last week

• Q3 Total: -9.3% - up 1.1 points from last week

2026 vs. 2025:

• Q1: -3.1%

• Q2: -9.8%

• Q3: -19.3% - up 1.1 points from last week

• Q4: -13.0% - up 0.9 points from last week

• 2026: -8.8% - up 0.6 points from last week