Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Q4 Total Core pace fell just a tenth of a point.

·       October lost 0.2 points.

·       November moved up 0.3 points.

·       December dropped 0.3 points.

Many categories felt the November improvements, with the only declines seen for CWs, the South Atlantic region, and markets 66-100.

Forecast Updates

This last week was decent, and I’m thrilled to report the November uptick across many categories. It sounds like money is indeed breaking late, as we have seen a plethora of heavy-ups across categories: auto (Ford, Mitsubishi, Hyundai, Honda, Cadillac), retail (Kroger and P&G), and healthcare (Moderna and Centene). This is precisely what we need to see to justify my forecasts, so I’m happy to report I’ve made very few changes this week, only lowering November’s estimate by half a point. With more good news like this, I might have to take it back up soon!

I am forecasting October to decline from here, but by far less than we would typically see in a political year. So many markets – even those in presidential swing states – are still seeing available inventory in October, which means last-minute political bookings may not displace core dollars at the level they have historically. As I’ve said, that’s good news for October but lousy news for November and December, as they won’t get a chance to pick up those dollars. Luckily, it sounds like advertisers are heavying up in those months instead.

So, for a change, I’m reporting more good news than bad news today, and hopefully not for the last time. Despite my optimistic tone, I continue to encourage you to price aggressively, only raising estimates and rates when you can see the dollars coming.

With that, here are our forecasts this week:

Q4 vs. 2023:

·       -24.0% for October – flat

·       -14.5% for November – down 0.5 points

·       -5.1% for December – flat

·       -14.8% for the quarter – down 0.2 points

2025 vs. 2024:

·       Q1: -6.5% – flat

·       Q2: -4.2% – flat

·       Q3: -3.7% – flat

·       Q4: +3.8% – flat

·       2025: -2.7% – flat