Q4 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

This week, Q4 Core pace increased by 0.2 points, driven by a 0.6-point jump for December.

Not all categories experienced growth in December, with declines observed for CBS, NBC, and MyNet stations, as well as the South Atlantic region.

Q1 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Q1 Core pace dropped 10.7 points, with every month and category seeing the decline.

• January fell by 8.0 points.

• February lost 15.2 points.

• March declined 10.3 points.

Forecast Updates

 December saw surprise heavy-ups from AT&T, Comcast, and Cheyy/GMC Zone, propelling many stations beyond their December estimates. As I shared last week, many stations saw pending lower than what history suggests they’d add in the month. Last week, I discussed how some of those dollars would come from the broadcast Q1 days, but the rest of that un-pended money typically comes from surprises, just like these heavy-ups. Perhaps we’ll see a bit more in the coming days, but I imagine the bulk of December activity from here will come from last-minute sports buys and 12/29-12/31 billing. In the end, I’m holding my estimate for the month, which allows for pace declines and could turn out to be conservative.

Q1 pace dropped rather precipitously this week, but I’m not alarmed. I’ve said for weeks that early bookings inflated the pace, and these declines are simply the prior years catching up to that early activity.

With that said, my estimates require January and February to grow in pace, but as Q1 breaks, this is highly likely, as all other data points suggest that my forecasts are in line. As I caution stations throughout most of December, it’s too early to get excited about positive or negative pacing today. One account being early or late can make a significant difference when few dollars are booked. Your best method for forecasting Q1 is to look at trends and month-to-month comparisons with Q4. You can’t really trust the booking channel until at least 50% of the month is booked, and even then, you should come to your meetings with a clear understanding of the timing of major accounts (or better yet, use our CRM, which will make that clear for you!).

Here are my forecasts for the week:

Q4 vs. 2024:

• +16.3% for October

• +1.1% for November – up 0.2 points from last week

• -3.7% for December – flat to last week

• +3.8% for the quarter – flat to last week

 2026 vs. 2025:

• Q1: -0.1%

• Q2: -5.4%

• ·Q3: -7.5%

• Q4: 9.5%

• 2026: -5.8%