Q1 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Q1 Core pace lost 1.5 points this week.

·      January fell by 0.5 points.

·      February dropped 2.8 points.

·      March declined 1.4 points.

The February drop was nearly universal, with only ABCs and the Northeast region growing.

Forecast Updates

While January fell in pace this week, it dropped less than I expected, and I was able to raise our estimate by a small 0.2 points. While this forecast change itself isn’t particularly significant, the fact that January has generally held on to the forecast we started with is encouraging.

March is the month I’m most concerned about: I worry that the overwhelming supply of sports opportunities – exacerbated by the Olympics -- may hurt March Madness sales, leading to a softer overall month than any of us would like to see, whether you are (or manage) a CBS or not. It’s the month that I’ve lowered most significantly (over a point) since the quarter began.  

NBCs have faced a similar challenge filling the Olympics, although February’s overall estimate remains strong thanks to better-than-expected Super Bowl sales. Besides the Super Bowl, these trends continue the issues we saw in Q4: too much sports content and not enough demand to go around. This calls for the two-pronged strategy I recommended in Q4: secure the highest rates from the few advertisers willing to pay them, while also being more aggressive – and creative – in selling the rest of that still valuable inventory. 

Buying patterns are changing, and demand—and seller incentives—are shifting toward Digital. Still, Broadcast remains a crucial part of successful media mixes and a significant revenue source for media companies. I understand there’s concern about positioning yourselves for political dollars, but until that heats up, keep exploring creative ways to maximize this valuable inventory. Monitoring your inventory closely and remaining flexible to adjust your strategy quickly are essential to your success. 

Here are this week’s forecasts:

 Q1 vs. 2025:

·      -3.8% for January – up 0.2 points from last week

·      +3.3% for February – up 0.3 points from last week

·      -3.3% for March – down 0.5 points from last week

·      -1.3% for the quarter – flat to last week

 2026 vs. 2025:

·      Q2: -6.8%

·      Q3: -8.5%

·      Q4: -11.7%

·      2026: -7.0%