Q4 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

This week, Q4 Core pace lost 0.9 points due to a 2.5-point drop in December.

The patterns were inconsistent – some categories declined while others grew – with growth observed for ABC, Fox, CW, MyNet, and Indy stations, as well as in the Northeast and West regions, and the top 20 DMAs.

Q1 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

We continue to see the Q1 Core pace fall, with this week's loss at 5.6%. Fox stations had a positive week, but every other category experienced a decline.

• January dropped 3.7 points.

• February fell by 8.3 points.

• March lost 5.2 points.

Forecast Updates

This is it, folks: the big pre-holiday week where everything comes in all at once, orders dropped in your laps by agency reps eager to walk out the door, not to return until the new year. It makes Q1 particularly difficult to forecast and price, with little clarity until you return to the office post-holidays, all the money is in, and it’s too late to impact pricing for the rest of the quarter.

Of course, I exaggerate; while it may feel like this, Q1 is actually the quarter with more core business written in-quarter than the rest of the year – over 35 points versus about 25 in Q2-Q4.

So, it won’t be too late on January 5th to make the most of Q1; you still have considerable power to maximize your inventory through smart pricing. However, since a large amount of money comes in at once, and you might be on vacation as the orders are being processed, you’ll have to make some bets about your pricing strategy. So, we recommend that you bet on demand being soft in January, as it usually is beyond playoff football, and this year, also most of February, thanks to the behemoth that is the Olympics. Although we’re hearing that Olympics demand is currently soft, it may be the best strategy for NBC and non-NBCs alike to put out aggressive rates in the month. However, you can be certain that demand in March will be strong and that pricing should be firmer then.

Now, if you are expecting heavy primary spending in Q1, your strategy may need to be different, but don’t forget that while political spending might be heavy, core spending is unlikely to be in the first part of the quarter, so don’t go too hard on the pricing here as you might later in the year.

So far, the money is coming in consistently with my forecasts, and therefore I’m holding them steady. Like you, I need to see what happens over the next couple of weeks before I have enough data to move more confidently away from the numbers. And so, my forecasts remain the same for Q1 (though I’ve adjusted them slightly for Q4).

We’ll publish a newsletter next week – we should see 15 or more points of business come down pre-Christmas Eve, and I want to make sure you know how things are shaping up. I’ll take off New Year's Eve, but we’ll keep our estimates up to date within our platform. Here are my forecasts for the week:

Q4 vs. 2024:

• +16.3% for October

• +1.3% for November – up 0.2 points from last week

• -3.0% for December – up 0.7 points from last week

• +4.3% for the quarter – up 0.5 points from last week

Q1 vs. 2025:

• -1.7% for January

• +2.1% for February

• -0.6% for March

• -0.1% for the quarter

 2026 vs. 2025:

• Q2: -5.4%

• ·Q3: -7.5%

• Q4: 9.5%

• 2026: -5.8%