Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

This week, Q2 Core pace fell 0.1 points.

·       April picked up 0.2 points.

·       May dropped 0.1 points.

·       June lost 0.4 points.

As last week, May’s declines weren’t seen consistently across categories, with the following showing week-over-week growth: ABC, CBS, MyNet affiliates, the Midwest and West regions, and 66-100 and 101+ DMAs.

Forecast Updates

Last week, I shared my concerns that May could look weaker relative to April than we’ve ever seen due to softer spending caused by economic uncertainty and tariff-related pullbacks from advertisers. I have those same concerns today: If I’m judging May based on where dollars sit today, May might end up weaker relative to the first four months of the year, a significant pattern shift for what is historically one of the bigger months of the year.

Then again, I thought the worst of April in the weeks leading up to the start of the month, and it is on track to finish over two points stronger than I estimated on March 31^st. Indeed, if May finishes in line with historical patterns, it would have to improve a little over 1.5 points in-month. April, by comparison,  picked up a little over a point in the month. May CAN get better, but it needs to hold on to the dollars there now and add more than it usually does in the month, both of which are challenging for different reasons.

Holding on to the dollars requires cleaning up tight inventory in the weeks of 5/12 and 5/19, ideally by pushing spots to open time periods and judiciously using the six calendar May days in the open week of 5/26.

Furthermore, we need to see a slowdown in cancellations, which have picked up recently with small cancellations from home improvement advertisers (National Floors Direct, West Shore Home) and DR (Arthritis Knee Pain), plus a smattering of auto advertisers (Chevy Dealer Group).

Will the Trump administration’s announcement of easing auto-related tariffs spur advertising? Some advertisers like Ford are already adding incremental dollars, so perhaps we’ll see more of that to come. Will the deal-making with various countries, leading to a further easing of tariffs, cause a pickup in home improvement and furniture-related spending? We certainly hope so, but time will tell.

Until the growth starts, I’m keeping my May and June estimates conservative, but May could end up 1.5-2 points higher than I’m estimating below. If we don’t see improvement in the next two weeks, I may lower my estimates for the back half of the year, but so far they’re still very consistent with the patterns seen in 2021 and 2023.

 Here are my forecasts today:

Q2 vs. 2024:

·       -5.3% for April – up 0.3 points

·       -8.3% for May – flat to last week

·       -4.5% for June  – flat to last week

·       -6.1% for the quarter – up 0.1 points

Q3 vs. 2024:

·       -13.0% for July – flat to last week

·       -12.0% for August – flat to last week

·        0.0% for September  – flat to last week

·       -8.3% for the quarter – flat to last week

Q4 vs. 2024:

·       Q4: +2.7% – no change from last week

·       2025: -5.4% – no change from last week