Q1 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Over the last week, the Q1 Core pace increased by 1.8 points.

·      January added 1.5 points.

·      February grew by 1.4 points.

·      March increased by 2.9 points.

Digging into January, while most categories grew, some fell: ABC, MyNet, and Indy affiliates, the Midwest and South Atlantic regions, and the top 20 DMA group.

Forecast Updates

Happy 2026! I hope you and your loved ones shared a joyous holiday season, leaving you well-rested and ready to tackle the year ahead. Because by my calculations, it will be a rough and tumble year, requiring agility, creativity, and resilience.

Here’s the good news: since our 12/22 newsletter, pacing has improved, growing four points in those two weeks, driven by nearly every category (MyNets were the only ones to lose pace). When I wrote the last newsletter, I was indeed a bit anxious that we would reach our forecast, but the charts now show that 12/22 was the bottom for Q1, so I can see where my anxiety was coming from. But it’s now clear that business was quite late – and might still be – with some stations reporting that orders were coming in on Christmas Day, truly getting down to the wire for Q1 starts.

So that’s the good news: my forecast at our lowest pacing point on 12/22 held up, and we’ve shown enough growth to justify that estimate. Now, I wouldn’t call this “bad news” per se, but the nuance here is that January continues to soften, but February is showing strength. In response, I’m lowering the first month’s estimate and raising the second, but this leaves the quarter’s forecast unchanged.

I’m hopeful January is simply feeling lateness from NFL playoff sales, we’ll see some last-minute spikes in the coming weeks, and I can take my forecast back up again. On the other hand, I’m pleased to see the February growth, particularly because what’s driving it is not solely the Olympics. In fact, NBC’s pace in February has been flat over the last two weeks, with every other affiliate group contributing to the month’s improvement.

Meanwhile, March has grown nicely and remains on track to meet its estimate. It’s possible that March Madness sales will be as late as NFL playoff sales, and March will grow even more than I’m anticipating. However, I will keep my forecast conservative until the numbers start to pan out.

I must close on a slightly sour note: I am lowering my 2026 annual estimate from -5.5% to -7%. However, there is still room for improvement, and I tend to forecast more conservatively than things are likely to turn out. To wit, a week into Q4, I estimated a +3.5% finish, and it ended up at +4.6% instead. These days, stations run more open than I’d like, wasting valuable inventory, so I want to encourage conservative pricing through my conservative forecasts. I can’t wait to be wrong again about 2026 and take those forecasts up in the coming months!

Here are this week’s forecasts:

Q1 vs. 2025:

·      -4.6% for January - down 1.0 point from two weeks ago

·      +3.0% for February – up 0.9 points from two weeks ago

·      -2.1% for March – flat to two weeks ago

·      -1.2% for the quarter – flat to two weeks ago

2026 vs. 2025:

·      Q2: -6.8%

·      Q3: -8.5%

·      Q4: -11.7%

·      2026: -7.0%