Q1 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Q1 Core pace is working back down again, losing one point in the last week.

·      January dropped 0.4 points.

·      February fell by 1.5 points.

·      March declined 1.6 points.

Not all categories lost pace in January, with the following areas experiencing growth: ABC, NBC, CW, and MyNet affiliates; the Midwest and South Atlantic regions; and the top 20 and 101+ DMA groups.

Forecast Updates

We’re well into January now, and while the quarter’s pace fell as a whole, there were some bright spots of growth, and so I’m raising my January forecast a bit.

I remain conservative in my forecast for February, predicting the month to be +3.0%, although there is evidence it could be as strong as +5.0%. Many of the NBCs I speak to are similarly conservative in their estimates for the month, suggesting that Super Bowl and Olympics revenue is far earlier than in 2022 and other years. I’m not sure I buy that – and I tell them so – but I also recognize that they know their pending business better than I do, and so I’m erring on the low end for now.

I’m also seeing very slightly better-than-expected February estimates from non-NBCs. Many were given conservative budgets for the month, which is a gift, but they might actually do better than planned. This might be why I see upside for February as well.

My March estimate assumes the month is breaking like last year, but I do see many CBSs behind on March Madness sales. If this is true, the month might turn out slightly stronger as well.

As I mentioned last week, I prefer to forecast conservatively, especially when our aggregated sellouts are trending open, as they currently are. I know many of you are increasingly incentivized to focus on digital sales – rightfully so, it’s where the growth is –, but you can make some fantastic deals on the linear side, so don’t take your eye off that ball. Get top dollar from advertisers who absolutely must buy live sports and Prime, and be aggressive on everything else.

Here are this week’s forecasts:

 Q1 vs. 2025:

·      -4.3% for January – up 0.3 points from last week

·      +3.0% for February – flat to last week

·      -2.1% for March – flat to last week

·      -1.1% for the quarter – up 0.1 points from last week

2026 vs. 2025:

·      Q2: -6.8%

·      Q3: -8.5%

·      Q4: -11.7%

·      2026: -7.0%