Q2 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Q2 Core pace climbed just a tenth of a point this week.

• May lost 0.3 points.

• June added 0.7 points.

June’s growth was widespread again, much like last week. The only categories to show declines were Fox, CW, and MyNet affiliates; the West region; and the 66-100 DMA group.

Forecast Updates

As we approach the end of May, I’m not surprised to see it lose pace. This week is one of the highest-demand weeks of the year, with little room for last-minute business, while next week is a classically low-demand period that won’t be a flight week for most advertisers. May may not be over, but I don’t expect it to move much from here.

June, on the other hand, continues to perform well — and not just for Fox stations with the World Cup. Whether advertisers are trying to stay out of the way of May political in primary states or simply seeking better pricing, they are clearly putting more money into June relative to April and May. I am still estimating that this growth will slow from here — including a potential 1.5-point decline from current pacing — but the month continues to look stronger than usual. It’s a strange quarter.

We are hearing about some small auto cancels due to inventory issues, some of which may be exacerbated by material shortages tied to the issues in the Strait of Hormuz. On the other hand, money is still coming down for the quarter from Kroger, Google (in a small handful of markets), and even GM. Comcast is also moving money around, canceling some residential buys while adding business spending.

Looking beyond Q2, I continue to tweak forecasts for the back half of the year, making a relatively small downward adjustment to Q3 but a larger 1-point reduction for Q4. What remains unknown, of course, is when gas prices will begin to ease and ideally improve consumer sentiment and advertiser spending. Reports suggest that if the conflict is resolved soon, October may be the earliest we see meaningful declines in gas prices. So while I remain optimistic that we’ll eventually see a rebound, I’m not sure how much it can lift Q4 when roughly 75% of the money is often booked by October 1st.

Here are my forecasts for the week:

Q2 vs. 2025:

• April: -13.6%

• May: -13.2% – down 0.2 points from last week

• June: -5.1% – down 0.5 points from last week

• Q2 Total: -10.7% - down 0.2 points from last week

2026 vs. 2025:

• Q1: -2.0%

• Q2: -10.7% - down 0.2 points from last week

• Q3: -12.3% - down 0.2 points from last week

• Q4: -15.3% - down 1.1 points from last week

• 2026: -10.1% - down 0.4 points from last week