Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Q4 Core had a negative week, dropping 0.4 points.

• November also lost 0.4 points.

• December fell by 0.5 points.

Almost every category fell in December, except for minor improvements in the Midwest and Northeast regions, and no change for the 66-100 DMA group.

Forecast Updates

As we pass the midway point of the quarter, I'm pleased to report that, despite the ups and downs in pace, my outlook has remained relatively consistent. On October 1st, I estimated that Q4 would end at +3.9%, and over the last two weeks, I've forecasted +3.6%.

I attribute that slight decline in my estimate to a softer-than-expected December, and I'm lowering it a bit again this week. However, a substantial avail request from Coca-Cola for a 4-week December buy has come in. If that materializes as expected, I'll be raising my forecasts this time next week.

We're also seeing smaller last-minute adds from Pfizer, T-Mobile, Hyundai, Honda, and Subaru. Planet Fitness is availing Q1 right now. The only negative news to share this week is that CVS has cancelled some schedules they placed just a couple of weeks ago.

We remain in that year-end period where advertisers suddenly realize they have money to spend before December 31st. Frequently, stations tell us they don't see much money pending, but that's because they can't pend for surprises. The history for December indicates that stations typically write an average of 10 points of business in the month, so even if you don't see the business pending, it may still be there. I hope it gives us some positive vibes to start 2026 with.

Here are my estimates for the week:

Q4 vs. 2024:

• +16.3% for October – flat to last week

• +0.8% for November – up 0.3 points from last week

• -4.5% for December – down 0.4 points from last week

• +3.6% for the quarter – flat to last week

2026 vs. 2025:

• Q1: -0.1%

• Q2: -5.4%

• Q3: -7.1%

• Q4: 8.9%

• 2026: -5.6%