Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

This week, Q3 Core pace picked up just a tenth of a point, as did the month of September on its own.

Quite a few of our categories saw the expected September growth in pace, except CBS and CWs, the South Atlantic region, and the DMA 1-20 group.

Q4 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

This week, Q4 Core pace picked up 0.2 points.

·       October added 1.4 points.

·       November saw no change week over week.

·       December dropped 0.9 points.

The pace changes weren’t consistent, with large markets gaining and small markets falling. As the quarter breaks, I’m not surprised to see these inconsistencies.

Forecast Updates

Once again, September did not grow as anticipated, but ultimately this didn’t throw off my forecasts. Last year, the month lost about three points from the midway point to the end, and against those declines this year, we should see the slight improvement required to get to my +8.9% forecast.

The forecasts giving me the most anxiety are Q4s because this is the most volatile time for a quarter in the 2-3 week period before it starts. Stations can be pacing up significantly one day and down the next, simply due to the timing of one or two particularly large orders.

My estimates position Q4 to break late. Still, I have numerous reasons for this assumption: 1) Q3 showed similar lateness about two weeks out, 2) 2019, which had a similar calendar with few crossover broadcast days, broke slightly later, and 3) my forecasts line up with how Q3 will finish.

There is the potential for both upside and downside to the quarter. A variable that could lead to upside for the quarter includes the particularly strong finish for September relative to July and August. If September alone is a predictor for Q4, each month could be at least two points higher.

On the downside, I’m hearing from a few markets that advertisers that have gone dark or significantly reduced budgets this year are particularly heavy sports buyers. Because Q4 is such a sports-heavy quarter, it could feel the impact of these losses far more than the rest of the year.

A lot of money is hitting the books this week; I wouldn’t be surprised if this time next week, I have a lot more confidence in my estimates as a result. Until then, here are my estimates:

Q3 vs. 2024:

·       -11.0% for July – flat to last week

·       -14.5% for August – up 0.3 points from last week

·        +8.9% for September  – flat to last week

·       -5.5% for the quarter – up 0.1 points from last week

Q4 vs. 2024:

·       +16.9% for October – down 1.1 points from last week

·       +3.0% for November – flat to last week

·        -3.0% for December – flat to last week

·       +5.1% for the quarter – down 0.3 points from last week