Q4 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

This week, Q4 Core pace fell just a tenth of a point.

• November lost 0.2 points.

• December picked up 0.5 points.

Several categories experienced growth in December, with declines observed only for CW, MyNet, and Indy stations, as well as the Northeast and South Central regions.

Forecast Updates

The November pace declined as I expected it would this week, but by less than I predicted, so I’ve raised the estimate slightly. As I write this article, I know that stations are scrambling to sell this weekend’s many available football spots, and this will likely insulate November from much further decline. I might even need to raise the number again this time next week.

I’m happy to report the increase in December, and I’m hopeful that this time next week it will climb even higher with the addition of the big Coca-Cola buys pending in many markets. While I am holding my estimate steady today, I could see myself raising it by at least half a point in the next week or two.

I continue to see the early pace in Q1, driven by advertisers booking markets early, along with their Olympics buys. Pacing has been declining over the last two weeks, supporting my theory of earliness, and I expect it to continue to fall over the coming weeks.

Here are my forecasts for the week:

Q4 vs. 2024:

• +16.3% for October – flat to last week

• +1.2% for November – up 0.4 points from last week

• -4.5% for December – flat to last week

• +3.7% for the quarter – up 0.1 points from last week

2026 vs. 2025:

• Q1: -0.1%

• Q2: -5.4%

• Q3: -7.5%

• Q4: 9.5%

• 2026: -5.8%