Q1 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

This week, Q1 Core pace fell by 0.2 points.

·      January lost 0.3 points.

·      February added half a point.

·      March dropped 1.2 points.

February’s improvement was not due to the NBC stations adding Super Bowl or Olympics dollars, but instead Fox and CWs, as well as the Midwest, Northeast, and West regions, and the 21-65 and 101+ DMA groups.

Forecast Updates

January is falling less than I had forecasted, which is encouraging. This week’s growth from non-NBCs is also good news. Both of these have me somewhat optimistic that we are indeed dealing with late-breaking business, which will lead to more in-month growth for both February and March.

Though I do have concerns about March: it is falling behind, and last year, a couple of large groups we work with made investment deals that will impact this year’s pace once the money hits the 2025 line. March Madness sales are lagging on CBS stations, and it’s unclear whether this is due to simple lateness or lower demand amid the plethora of sports opportunities available to buy this quarter. Given these contradicting questions, I continue to forecast the month conservatively and have lowered my estimate a few tenths of a point today.

Many stations see low sellouts during the Olympics, with the post-Olympics week of 2/23 picking up. Keep your pricing aggressive to capture any opportunities that come your way, but hold rates higher if your sellouts are picking up 2/23 and beyond. Q1 is always a tricky quarter to forecast and price – what we’re dealing with now isn’t anything new – but the Olympics and overabundance of sports are making it more complicated than ever. As always, the smart strategy is to make your best-informed and realistic guess about demand and price, and be willing to change those guesses when the information changes. We’ve got this.

Here are this week’s forecasts:

Q1 vs. 2025:

·      -4.0% for January – up 0.3 points from last week

·      +3.0% for February – flat to last week

·      -2.8% for March – down 0.7 points from last week

·      -1.3% for the quarter – down 0.2 points from last week

 2026 vs. 2025:

·      Q2: -6.8%

·      Q3: -8.5%

·      Q4: -11.7%

·      2026: -7.0%