Q4 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Q4 Core pace climbed a tenth of a point this week, driven by December’s pickup of half a point.

Q1 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Q1 Core pace dropped 3.8 points this week.

• January lost 2.3 points.

• February declined 6.2 points.

• March dropped 3.1 points.

Some groups had a positive January, with growth seen for ABC and Fox affiliates, the Northeast and Midwest regions, and the 21-65 DMA group.

Forecast Updates

For the last few weeks, I’ve had a goal for our station database: to have at least 53% of Q1 Core booked by 12/23, the day before many of us head off for some holiday relaxation. So I’m thrilled to report that as of today, stations are at 55%, ahead of our goal.

This milestone might be a reason for me to raise my forecast, but I want to proceed cautiously with those changes, as there are some details that I hope to iron out over the next few days. One significant detail is that the driver for the momentum is February, which is clearly impacted by NBCs selling the Olympics and Super Bowl. Most are ahead of where they were at this time last year, but it appears this is driven more by Super Bowl momentum than by Olympics demand, which is reportedly soft, late, or a combination of both. If the Super Bowl is early and the Olympics are ultimately soft, any upside in February now will be erased later if the Olympics don’t move as much as they did in 2022. So I am cautious here, and am holding my estimate for now.

While February drives the pace in Q1, January and March were a little behind where they typically are in other years, so I’ve lowered each by about two points. I’d love to be proven wrong with late-breaking activity in the next week or two, and I will certainly let you know if that happens. Our next milestone is January 1st, typically 63% booked; if we’re there, then I won’t have to go any lower, and if we exceed it, I might take my estimates back up again.

I’ll be watching January and March most closely: if, when we’re all back at work on the 5th, January is at least 80% in (even better at 82%) and March is at least 50% booked (again, better at 52%), then we’re on track to our goals and then some. I know orders are still being entered this week, even if fewer people are actually selling, so the opportunity to hit these goals in the next 10 or so days is absolutely there.

While we won’t send a newsletter next week, I will review my forecasts within our systems, though I may be cautious about making any changes until we reach the fifth. I hope you enjoy some rest amongst the holiday craziness, and I look forward to kicking off what I imagine will be a wild 2026 with you.

Here are my forecasts for the week:

Q4 vs. 2024:

• +16.3% for October

• +1.3% for November

• -2.5% for December – up 05 points from last week

• +4.4% for the quarter – up 0.1 points from last week

Q1 vs. 2025:

• -3.6% for January - down 1.9 points from last week

• +2.1% for February - flat to last week

• -2.1% for March - down 1.5 points from last week

• -1.2% for the quarter - down 1.1 points from last week

 2026 vs. 2025:

• Q2: -5.4%

• ·Q3: -7.5%

• Q4: 9.5%

• 2026: -5.8%