Q2 Local+National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Q2 Core pace moved in both directions over the past week, ultimately declining by 0.1 points Monday to Monday.

• April improved, adding 0.9 points

• May declined by half a point

• June fell by 1.0 point

Most categories participated in April’s growth, though declines were seen for CBS, MyNet, and indie stations. All regions and DMA groups also showed improvement.

Forecast Updates

Alright, I’ll admit it: I don’t know what is going on with second quarter right now. And based on recent conversations with markets big and small, neither does anyone else.

Here’s what we’re dealing with: April is on track to finish weaker than March — or Q1 as a whole — would have suggested. Weaker, in fact, than we’ve ever seen outside of the initial months of the pandemic.

May’s not faring much better: it’s on track to be the weakest May on record relative to the rest of the quarter.

But then there’s June, which is pacing to be stronger than usual relative to April and May (outside of 2020). And it’s not purely World Cup-driven: all major networks are pacing better in the third month than the first two. Last week, I offered one explanation based on the early timing of Memorial Day this year. But since then, I’ve seen multiple examples of sellouts in June outpacing sellouts in May — a highly unusual dynamic, given typical demand patterns and the fact that June is farther out in time.

So I don’t know what’s going on. Those I’ve spoken with at the station and corporate level haven’t shared any data suggesting agencies or major advertisers are shifting dollars at scale. And I’m not convinced political avoidance is a factor: only ten states have primaries in May, with runoffs in two additional states. That isn’t broad enough to drive universal avoidance, as we would typically see in a month like October. The only theory I have to explain the general weakness across the quarter is advertiser uncertainty in the current economic climate, potentially exacerbated by high gas prices — though that still doesn’t fully explain the apparent shift in demand to June.

Of course, I could be wrong: money could be breaking late and distorting the picture. April was the only month to pick up pace in the last week — by nearly a full point — and across most categories. Growth in the current month does support a late-booking trend, and it would make sense for later months to soften before strengthening. Advertisers facing higher costs may simply be taking longer to commit.

However, I’m not hearing many stations supporting lateness claims with meaningful pending. If you’re in a management position and hearing that money is late, don’t accept that at face value. Push for high-confidence pending to validate the claim.

At the same time, I can’t ignore another trend: quite a few stations are running more open than expected, with an 84% projected sellout on major dayparts as of this writing. That’s too low — something in the 90s would be more typical. And I suspect some stations have overstated projected sellout levels because they’re not yet ready to adjust pricing targets downward. Weak pacing combined with open inventory is typically a recipe for a soft quarter.

After all that, here’s the good news: while I’ve lowered my outlook for April and May, I’ve increased June, and my overall estimate for the quarter declines by only a tenth of a point. The dollars appear to be there for the quarter — they just seem to be more backloaded than usual. I’ll take that outcome.

Here are my forecasts for the week:

Q2 vs. 2025:

• April: -13.5% – down 0.6 points from last week

• May: -11.0% – down 1.2 points from last week

• June: -3.8% – up 1.4 points from last week

• Q2 Total: -9.5% - down 0.1 points from last week

2026 vs. 2025:

• Q1: -2.0%

• Q2: -9.5%

• Q3: -10.5%

• Q4: -13.7%

• 2026: -8.9%